A 13-layer probability-weighted framework for silver and gold pricing through December 2026 and beyond. Built and maintained by Jim Chen.
→ View Current Framework (V8.1a)This framework began as a personal research project to answer one question: how should an unleveraged physical silver holder think about position sizing when the macro environment is simultaneously experiencing an oil shock, a rate-cut reversal, a central bank gold rotation, and a chokepoint crisis?
What started as a V1 note became a 13-layer probability-weighted model spanning supply/deficit fundamentals, inflation dynamics, petrodollar erosion, geopolitical chokepoints, banking fragility, debt refinancing cliffs, and eurodollar dollar-shortage mechanics. Every claim is sourced. Every scenario is weighted. Every layer can be stress-tested.
The framework is updated continuously as new data arrives — PPI/CPI prints, FOMC decisions, FX reserve reports, and geopolitical events. Older versions are preserved in the version history above so you can see how the thesis evolved.